Should I have to pay over blue book?

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Car dealers have been telling me that used cars are flying off the lots so fast now that they don't have to go below Kelly Blue Book - indeed they mostly want over KBB, especially on Subarus, which near Ithaca, NY (which sometimes has snow, and has some hills), where AWD vehicles are rather popular, and especially on no-accident, low mileage, good condition cars in the 5-10 year old range.

They are blaming the recent chip shortage, that has driven many would-be new car buyers to instead buy used cars.

Is that really true, even if we are willing to go 50-100 miles out of town, e.g., to Owego, Binghamton, Cortland, or Auburn?

When I bought my (Toyota) car around 2020, it was true that when I tried to negotiate down on no accident, low mileage on a car in that time frame, all the used car dealers turned me down, even when all I sought was blue book prices - though I eventually found dealers 120-150 miles out of town (I was near DC), who advertised 5-10% below blue book - though they wouldn't negotiate either (they told me that they advertised those prices on the assumption that that would be enough to draw DC and Baltimore area buyers, but that left no room for negotiation). (Actually, what I bought actually had had body work - but it hadn't been reported to the police or insurance company, so Carfax didn't know, and the work had been done well enough that an independent mechanic didn't know. But that is another story.)

How much should we pay NOW relative to KBB, for a 5-10 year old low mileage, no accident, good condition car? They used to say dealers left about 20% room for negotiation.

Also, we have a rusted 2001 Outback that is not worth the cost of repair to pass NY state annual inspection. Should we bother telling the dealer we have a potential trade in, or would that just mean they would make us pay a higher price (on which we would have to pay more registration fees and taxes)?

Thanks!
 

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